Cost Predictability
About
Cost Predictability captures the likelihood that a reactor project will be delivered within its expected budget. Even projects with attractive overnight or operational costs can fail if costs are uncertain or prone to escalation. Predictability matters for financing, risk allocation, and public confidence, particularly for first-of-a-kind or novel designs. Cost Predictability indicators capture the learning that takes place as developers repeat the construction and operation of nuclear reactors through multiple deployments and modular fabrication. As developers learn more about that process, costs become more predictable.
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Indicator Breakdown
Weight 75%
Prototype
Core question
To what extent has the reactor design been built, demonstrated, or commercially deployed in practice?
Prototype measures the extent to which the reactor design has been prototyped, demonstrated, and commercially deployed. This indicator captures the availability of real-world cost data, maturity of construction methods, and reduction of first-of-a-kind risk.
Coding rules
- 0 — No prototype built
- 1 — Engineered prototype built
- 2 — Nuclear prototype built
- 3 — One commercially deployed unit
- 4 — Two to five commercially deployed units
- 5 — More than five commercially deployed units
Weight 25%
Modularity
Core question
What share of total reactor systems can be manufactured off-site in controlled factory environments rather than constructed on-site?
Modularity measures the percentage of total reactor systems that can be manufactured off-site in factory settings rather than constructed on-site. This indicator reflects construction repeatability, schedule control, and reduced exposure to site-specific delays.
Coding rules
- 1 — Less than 60%
- 2 — 60%-80%
- 3 — Greater than 80%
